I expected Team Brazil to win this event easily. I did not expect them to throw away scores, however. They currently have a one-bull lead, and in tonight’s action they should at least maintain that, if not improve upon it. Their pool of bulls in Round 4 is great for them – and if they can get three scores in Round 3, they could put it out of reach tonight – provided they don’t take any off the board.
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Round 3
Team Mexico
It’s really going to be tough for Team Mexico not to get blanked in Round 3. Morales may be their best hope here.
Francisco Morales on 611 Boomer Sooner: Boomer Soomer has only been out once in the PBR, and that was at a Touring Pro event in Fort Worth, Texas, last December. He was ridden by Ryan McConnel for 84.5 points.
Gustavo Pedrero on R3 Real Western: This bull is hard to read by his stats, because he’s probably much better than he looks on paper. He posted some weak bull scores last spring, but he was young and inexperienced. His past two outs have been over 44 points.
Lorenzo Rios on 77 Super Duty: I have to go with Super Duty on this one. I don’t think Team Mexico will get a score here.
Nile LeBaron on S Backyard Hootie: Hootie is pretty good at tossing guys, and LeBaron was 0-for-2 last night.
Rocky McDonald on 511 Another Husker: This matchup doesn’t look good for Team Mexico. Another Husker has been only been ridden twice, both times by left-handed riders.
Team USA
This is a good pool for Team USA to post three scores with, and more importantly, a good round for them to make up ground on Brazil.
Austin Meier on 323 Little Mr. T: Probably going to be a goose egg. Little Mr. T is just hard to ride. He’s 91 percent overall, and 93 percent against left-handers.
McKennon Wimberly on -0 Bootlegger: Great matchup here. Wimberly should ride, and Team USA needs him to get it done.
Mike Lee on K14 Yellowjacket Jr.: With all the fuss over who was going to be on Team USA, Mike Lee was left out of the discussion for the most part. However, he may be the most important member of the team, because he is their best rider. In terms of career riding percentage, Lee leads Team USA, and they have needed him to face some pretty tough bulls so far. This is no exception, and again he could come through and post a score on one of the better bulls in their pool. He was 89 on Yellowjacket Jr. in New York.
Ryan McConnel on 23S Stretch Armstrong: This is a safe bet to get a score as well. Stretch Armstrong is not terribly difficult, and should be into McConnel’s hand.
Travis Briscoe on 589 Crash: Crash has only appeared once on the Built Ford Tough Series, but he has been around the Touring Pros in Texas since last May. He’s only been ridden once, and it was by a right-handed rider.
Team Australia
In this round, Team Australia will need Jones and Farley to come up big again.
Ben Jones on 513 High Alert: Not a lot of history on this bull. He’s a young bull with only three outs, and is unridden so far.
Brendon Clark on 54S Sure Shot: Unridden in 11 outs, Sure Shot has tossed Austin Meier, Pistol Robinson, and Reese Cates, among others. He won’t be easy.
David Kennedy on WB50 Cleo’s Pet: This is a bull that Kennedy should be able to get the job done on. He’s been ridden by 60 percent of the left-handed riders who have tried him.
Jared Farley on 100 Soulja Boy: Jared Farley came up big for Team Australia last night, and they desperately need him to do it again tonight. Soulja Boy is as good a bull to ride as they have in their pool, and they need to make the most of it.
Pete Farley on 309 Hope So: I keep a rider stats index in order to compare riders across the years. I give riders a value based on their career riding percentage, career round wins, 90-point rides, and more. The value is a percentage – like a batting average. My No. 1 career guy is Justin McBride, with .367.
One of the things I look at in bulls is their record against “top riders,” meaning guys who have at least .225 in my stats index – and that is usually the Top 60 career guys I have records for, going back 8-10 years. Pete Farley is at .137, but his bull – Hope So – has blanked eight of my “top riders” consecutively, going back to September of 2008. I expect Hope So to come out on top here.
Team Brazil
I’ll admit I have never really studied team captain strategy at the World Cup before, but mathematically, it doesn’t make sense ever to refuse a score. In this format, if you ride three bulls in a round consistently, you ought to win easily, no matter what the scores are. Your scores could all be in the 70s, and you could still win it.
Guilherme Marchi on 385 West Coast Cowboy: This should be an easy score. West Coast Cowboy is very rider-friendly, and Marchi is one of the best riders going.
Paulo Ferreira on 259 Parrothead: Here’s a guy we have very little history on, versus a bull we have very little history on, which makes my analysis almost useless. I do know they need to get this bull ridden, because some of their others are not easy.
Renato Nunes on 22S Priceless: This is a match made in heaven. Priceless is a perfect fit for a lefty, we could be looking at a big score here.
Robson Palermo on 327 Commotion: This is a decision I don’t really understand. I’m not sure how Palermo’s feeling, but Commotion doesn’t make anyone feel better, and makes quite a few riders feel like going home and lying in bed. But the big issue is that he’s been very effective against left-handers. The only time he’s ever been ridden by a left-handed rider was on a bad day.
Silvano Alves on 42 Dutch Rudder: I probably would have swapped Alves with Palermo here, because this bull has only been ridden by a lefty. I don’t know if it would improve the chances of getting Commotion ridden – the best strategy may be to forget Commotion and focus on getting a score on this one.
Team Canada
The strategy is simple for Team Canada: They need scores!
Aaron Roy on 602 Judgement Day: This is a brand-new bull making his PBR debut. Not sure why they put Roy on him, but given the other bulls in their pool, they need to get a score on this one.
Devon Mezei on 452 Fully Loaded: Fully Loaded is a bull on whom Team Canada cannot afford to get a no-score. It doesn’t get much nicer than this – this bull is very rideable, and Canada needs scores.
Scott Schiffner on 215 Prince of Darkness: When you draw a bull called Prince of Darkness, I guess you don’t expect him to be nice and friendly, and he hasn’t been. Unridden in seven outs, this bull was 45.25 points in Kansas City.
Tyler Thomson on 44 Red Bull: This is a very solid young bull who has been ridden twice out of eight attempts. If Thomson can get the job done, Team Canada will be in good shape for this round.
Vince Northrop on 24S Best Ever: This bull is a 4-year-old son of Page’s Best Shot, AKA Super Duty ( the first Super Duty). His mother is a daughter if Don Kish’s No Can Do. This bull is genetically equipped to buck, and he’s done it. His record is similar to that of Prince of Darkness: He is unridden, and will be a tough task for Northrop.
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Round 4
Team USA
Round 4 isn’t drawn up perfectly for Team USA, and if they can get out of here with three scores it will be a huge victory for them.
Travis Briscoe on 260 Booger Butt: This is a match that Briscoe HAS to win. Booger Butt should be ridden most of the time by left-handed riders, but he does tend to move forward, and can make anyone fall off. Briscoe has had him five times, and has ridden him three times. He’s got to get it done here, because he has the best matchup of any Team USA rider in Round 4.
Austin Meier on 68 Lil’ Red Kat: No previous matchups, but this should be a bull Meier can probably handle. He’s only been ridden twice in 12 attempts.
McKennon Wimberly on 61 Shredder: Shredder has been statistically a little better for right-handed riders, but Wimberly is capable of getting the job done.
Mike Lee on 90 Hypnotized: Team USA needs Lee to come through. Meier rode this bull just last week, but they chose not to put Meier on him. Along with Booger Butt, this bull has to get ridden for Team USA to stay close to the lead.
Ryan McConnel on C21 White Magic: No one here would be favored against White Magic. McConnel has been on him twice and has ridden him a total of 4.8 seconds. However, I think he is the right guy to face White Magic here.
Team Australia
Captain Troy Dunn needs Jones and Clark to come up big for him in this round to stay in the race.
Ben Jones on 563 Heebee Geebee: If Jones can get the job done here, Team Australia will be in good shape for this round. The bull is a little better for a left-handed rider, but Dunn matched this round up well.
Brendon Clark on 288 RMEF Bugle: This is the one that must get ridden for Team Australia, and Dunn has his best rider on the job. This is another bull who is ridden much more often by lefties, but Clark really needs to buck the odds and get a score.
David Kennedy on 572 Down Time: From a bull rider’s perspective, drawing a bull named Down Time is not a good thing. This bull tosses 90 percent of the guys he faces, and Kennedy is likely to come down here.
Jared Farley on 196 Tightrope: Another bull who is seldom ridden, Tightrope has only allowed only one qualified ride in more than 15 months.
Pete Farley on 224 Hot Pistol: Hot Pistol is almost never ridden, but Farley has taken him 6.6 seconds before. I like the matchup because Pete Farley seems to ride better against the best bulls.
Team Brazil
Anything less than three scores in this round would be really dropping the ball for Team Brazil. They should be able to get through Round 4 on cruise control.
Guilherme Marchi on 1391 Mac-Nett’s El Presidente: Marchi has ridden this bull in their only meeting, but it was back in 2007. He is better for right-handed riders, and Marchi is the right man for the job here.
Paulo Ferreira on 54 Stiffler: This is one of the tougher bulls in this pool for Team Brazil to get a score on, but Ferreira has an excellent chance.
Renato Nunes on 443 Western Star: Nunes rode him in Tulsa last season for 88.5 points. Odds are he will get the job done tonight as well.
Robson Palermo on 6 Backyard Big Rig: Big Rig threw Palermo off right at the whistle in Baltimore earlier this year, but don’t look for it to happen again. This is one of the best draws in the PBR, and they win a ton of money on him. Palermo will come through tonight.
Silvano Alves on 03 Black Smoke: Black Smoke is one of the oldest bulls on tour. In fact, he turned 10 years old this year, and few bulls are still this good at age 10. He’s likely to go away from Silvano’s hand, but this should result in a qualified ride. If I were the captain, I might have put Palermo on him and used Alves on Big Rig, but I think Team Brazil will get their three rides regardless.
Team Canada
Team Canada will struggle to keep up here, and they need Roy and Thomson to come through for them.
Aaron Roy on S505 Tiggered: Colby Yates rode this bull in Round 1 in Nampa, Idaho, last week, in his only PBR outing.
Devon Mezei on 01 Big Stuff: Big Stuff has been ridden once in six attempts – by McKennon Wimberly in St. Louis.
Scott Schiffner on 615 Tomahawk: Unridden in five attempts, Tomahawk has posted some impressive bull scores. He may be one of the tougher bulls in this pool.
Tyler Thomson on 507 Chicken Fried: This is a bull who is somewhat rideable, although he has been a little better for right-handers. Thomson needs to get Team Canada a score here, because scores will be hard to come by in this pool.
Vince Northrop on D13 Ricky Bobby: Although Ricky Bobby normally spins to the left, away from Northrop’s hand, I like the matchup here. Unlike most bulls, Ricky Bobby wants to throw you to the inside of the spin, and that can be dealt with going away from your hand. If Northrop can stay centered, he could get a much-needed score.
Team Mexico
Team Mexico will need some luck to get even one bull ridden in this pool.
Francisco Morales on 1513 Skyhawk Cut-A-Rug: This is very unlikely to result in a qualified ride.
Gustavo Pedrero on 206 Clam Digger: This is Team Mexico’s best hope. They have to get a score out of Clam Digger to have any hope of staying in contention, and Clam Digger was not a pushover last week.
Lorenzo Rios on 316 Bad Blood: Bad Blood was pretty weak and rideable with Guilherme Marchi last week. If he has that kind of trip again, anyone can ride him.
Nile LeBaron on 655 The Juice: The Juice is far more favorable for left-handed riders, but he is ridden often enough by righties as well.
Rocky McDonald on 581 Jr. Powder: Team Mexico has the right guy on this bull. Powder has only been ridden by right-handed guys, However, he is only ridden 15 percent of the time overall.
— by Slade Long
(Slade Long, PBR Web Developer and Statistician, has been crunching the numbers on bucking bulls for 11 years.)