The Morning Line: Nashville, day 1


  • World No. 1 Joao Ricardo Vieira draws Mr. Mustachio in Round 2, a tough matchup because of the bull's unpredictability.
  • J.B. Mauney draws Heat Seeker, a bull who is unridden, but hasn't faced many top riders.
  • Guilherme Marchi, who is returning from an arm injury, draws Alligator Arms.

In This Article

Round 1 Matchups:

Mason Lowe on 885 Soldier’s Pride VS. Chase Outlaw on 06 Necessary Roughness:

Lowe has been on his bull before and only lasted 2 seconds and change. Soldier’s Pride is pretty effective against right-handed riders. Outlaw’s bull doesn’t have much history, so it’s hard to say how they will match up, but I believe Outlaw is the better rider of these two and he should have an edge in this pairing.

Shane Proctor on R287-01 Closing Time VS. Alexandre Cardozo on 786 Hot Iron:

Proctor is the better rider and he’s got the better draw — that gives him a little advantage. Look for Proctor to make the whistle on Closing Time. Cardozo needs a qualified ride to advance here. Hot Iron is a little trickier to ride, but if Cardozo does stay on he’s got a good chance to outscore Proctor. 

Rubens Barbosa on 013 Mr. U VS: Michael Lane on 114 Darth Vader:

Lane has previous history with Darth Vader. They met at a Blue Def Velocity Tour event in Wheeling, West Virginia, back in March, and Lane was 86.5 points. Barbosa’s bull isn’t ridden very often. Barbosa has better odds of advancing further in this event, but given the individual matchups, he may get eliminated in the opening round.

Robson Aragao on 1031 Vegas Outlaw vs. Dave Mason on 654 Stanley Fat Max:

Neither of these bulls are a picnic. Vegas Outlaw is unridden in 11 career outs, and he is not a rider favorite. Fat Max is essentially legendary for being difficult to ride. He’s been around for a long time, and has already secured a place among the most difficult-to-ride bulls in PBR history. This match will go to whomever can grit it out the longest.

Gage Gay on 125 Gold Rush VS. Kasey Hayes on 00 Superstition:

Both these bulls are fairly new, but Gold Rush has been ridden three times in five career outs and that may give Gay a slight edge here. Most bulls don’t turn out to be that rider-friendly, and since Hayes has a very unknown bull, the odds are that bull will be harder.

Ben Jones on 015 Mug Shot VS. Douglas Duncan on 014 Spear My Gear:

These two bulls have pretty similar records. Duncan’s bull has been ridden once in nine career outs, and Jones’ bull is 19-0. Neither bull has faced very many top-tier riders, but riders have stayed on Spear my Gear for longer times before coming down, so Duncan may have a better chance at advancing here.

Renato Nunes on 02 Beaver Creek Beau VS. Brady Sims on 03 Redbone:

These are both big strong bulls, but Sims should have a big advantage because Beaver Creek Beau doesn’t fit Renato Nunes at all. They’ve met once before and Nunes was off in 1.54 seconds. Both riders here are left-handed and Redbone is a much better fit for lefties. 

Cooper Davis on 79 VS. Robson Palermo on 344-9 Crack the Whip:

Palermo should be the favorite here. Both of these bulls lean toward the nicer-to-ride end of the pen, but Palermo has been on his bull before and was 89.5 points on him. Davis’ bull is slightly more difficult, but is less tricky than Crack the Whip, so Davis does have a shot.

Eduardo Aparecido on 028 Pitch Black VS. Ryan Dirteater on 1R15 The Punisher:

Neither bull has been ridden before, but Pitch Black has only one Touring Pro out on record so he’s fairly unknown. The Punisher was one of the best bulls in Biloxi, Mississippi, particularly in his first out against Aaron Roy. He was strong from the first jump. If he has the same trip here, He could score a quick buckoff against Dirteater. In his second trip at Biloxi, Stormy Wing rode The Punisher 7.98 seconds before coming down. 

Cody Nance on 1R6 I Get That VS. Emilio Resende on Y20 Wipeout:

I Get That is 1-2 against lefties, and carried Nathan Schaper to a round win in Biloxi. He’s a better fit for Nance on paper than Wipeout is for Resende, but both of these bulls are fairly rider-friendly and it may take a qualified ride to advance here.

Aaron Roy on 84U Buck Dynasty vs Stormy Wing on 43X Lane’s Magic Train:

These are both rematches, and both ended in less than 4 seconds the first time. If you let every rider here pick between these two bulls, 100 percent of them would pick Magic Train. That’s because Buck Dynasty is possibly the least-loved bull going right now. He’s miserably hard to ride, and his record shows it.

Tanner Byrne on 4 Whistlin’ Dixie VS. Tyler Harr on 118 Buck Stomp:

Whistling Dixie only has one out on record, so he’s fairly unknown.  Buck Stomp doesn’t have a long record, but he has given up a couple of rides to lefties. Byrne is the stronger of these two riders, but Harr may have a bull that fits him better.

Round 2 Matchups:

Joao Ricardo Vieira on 066 Ward’s Mr Mustachio VS. TBD on 28W Nefarious:

Just comparing these bulls, Nefarious is the more likely to be ridden of the two. Mr. Mustachio has only been ridden a couple of times and only when he’s had an off day. What this really boils down to is which way Mr. Mustachio spins. If he goes to the right, the odds are that Vieira won’t advance and either Chase Outlaw or Mason Lowe will.

Mike Lee on 1106 Off The Grid VS. TBD on 1101 Big Tex Rocks the Chute:

Whomever moves up to face off with Lee, he’ll have an advantage. Big Tex Rocks the Chute has given up rides to two of the four right-handed riders who have faced him, and both of his possible opponents are right-handed.  Both these bulls are pretty difficult, and it will be tough for Lee to advance.

Guilherme Marchi on 192 Alligator Arms VS. TBD on 093 Pure Bull:

Marchi has a huge advantage over whomever faces him here, because he’s one of the best riders in PBR history, and neither of the other two possible riders are really in his league. But, he’s got a bull that is unridden here, and what’s more, he’s pretty bad in the chute. Marchi isn’t the most efficient guy at getting out of the chute and there’s a good chance he or the bull could be rattled before the gate ever opens.

Fabiano Vieira on -9 Circle City VS. TBD on 730 Air Bender:

Vieira should have an advantage no matter who he might face here because he’s clearly the better rider in this match. He’s got a bull that’s likely to go away from his hand, but that shouldn’t be too much of an issue for him. Air Bender is a good bull to have for Aragao or Mason, but they’ll probably have to get a score on him to have a chance.

J.B. Mauney on 229 Heat Seeker VS. TBD on 915 Tom Horn:

Both bulls in this match are unridden, but neither has faced any high-level riders. No matter who faces him, Mauney should be the huge favorite here, especially given he’s been on a roll lately. Mauney can be beat in this format, but the only way to do it is outscore him. He’s probably not going to give it away.

Stetson Lawrence on 700 Fire Bender VS. TBD on X18 More Big Bucks:

Lawrence probably wishes the draw were reversed here. He’s been on More Big Bucks before and was 90.5 points on him en route to an event win in Big Sky, Montana. Most lefties have a good time with More Big Bucks. Fire Bender is ridden less often, although his bucking style is similar. These are both good bulls, and there’s a good chance we’ll see two qualified rides in this match, especially if Douglas Duncan moves into this spot.

Nathan Schaper on 101 Highway Man VS. TBD on 00 Set ‘em Up Joe:

Both bulls here look pretty tough to ride on paper, but Set ‘em Up Joe has a longer history and is better known to the riders. He’s also prone to go to the right, and both of his possible opponents are left-handed. Schaper’s bull is making his BFTS debut here, but he did throw off Neil Holmes and Robson Palermo in Big Sky, Montana. Brady Sims is likely to be the opponent here, and Schaper is a higher-level rider, but this match is really a push.

Reese Cates on 033 Shoot Out the Lights VS. TBD on 8312 Clementine:

These are two bulls that are likely to be ridden. Cates is almost sure to ride Shoot Out the Lights, a bull that is notoriously weak against right-handed riders. Chances are he will face Robson Palermo, who can certainly ride Clementine. This match will probably come down to which bull can deliver a better score.

Matt Triplett on 6Y Going Fast VS. TBD on 0628 Bluegrass:

This match features two very similar bulls here that have different records. Going Fast is unridden, but he’s also untested. This will be his BFTS debut. Bluegrass has been around a little and is better-known, and he’s not overly difficult to ride. This is another pairing where there’s a good chance that both guys will turn in a score.

J.W. Harris on 92 Lil’ Gremlin VS. TBD on 045 Bad Touch:

I think Harris has an edge here. Gremlin has given up a few rides, while Bad Touch has a bad habit of moving forward a lot, and he’s caused a lot of quick buckoffs. Cody Nance or Emilio Resende will end up in this spot, and both of those guys are sticky, but a bull that has a lot of forward movement is kryptonite to every rider.

Kaique Pacheco on 9507 Blues Man VS. TBD on EB1 Fast Tracker:

This is another pairing where both bulls are on the easier side. Fast Tracker has just one out on record, but it did result in a qualified ride. Blues Man has more experience, we know more about him, and one of the things we know is that he’s unlikely to throw Pacheco off. So whether Roy or Wing end up in this match, they will have to make the whistle to advance.

Silvano Alves on 0208 Hornet’s Nest VS. ? on 431 Panhead:

It’s very hard to predict anything having to do with Alves right now, because he hasn’t been himself lately. He was a combined 1-for-5 at Biloxi and Tulsa, but this is the same guy who dominates the World Finals year after year. Both these bulls are on the more difficult side, but the real variable is Alves. Will he be the rider no one can beat, or the rider anyone can beat?


Follow Slade Long on Twitter @Probullstats


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