The morning line: Albuquerque, Day 3


  • Event Leaders Standings

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Here’s how it looks for the event leaders:

LJ Jenkins on 465 Outta Da Blue:
Surprisingly, they haven’t met before. This is the safest and smartest pick in the round for the guy in the lead, and Jenkins should get a score here.

Ryan McConnel on 412 Big Iron:
McConnel was 89.75 points on Big Iron on the last day in Albuquerque last year. He also bucked off Big Iron 3 weeks prior to that in Kansas City, Mo. McConnel looks unstoppable so far here. He’s looking to take the lead with this pick.

Valdiron de Oliveira on 300 Foolish Pride:
This is the bull Guilherme Marchi rode in Round 1 for 85.5 points. After the gauntlet Oliveira ran last night, it’s hard to blame him for picking something less difficult, but this can be enough bull to win a round on at times.

Silvano Alves on 238 Next Thing Smokin’:
Next Thing Smokin’ got Colby Yates in Round 1. He’s not going to be an eliminator-type bull – he’s been ridden three out of seven times. I’m not sure why Alves picked this one, but he may have liked what he’s seen of him this season. There are better bulls available for him in this spot.

Tony Mendes on 563 Heebee Geebee:
Stormy Wing won last night’s long round on Heebee Geebee. This is a pretty strong bull who’s going to go to the left, into Tony’s hand, and should be a good fit.

J. B. Mauney on TD2 Bucking Machine:
Mauney appears to be back on track. This bull was tied for the high-marked bull in last night’s round with Paulo Lima aboard, and therefore, why wouldn’t Mauney pick him? Henry Mast, Calif., and he made about as many rounds to the left as a bull can make in 8 seconds. This will be an exciting matchup.

Kody Lostroh on 265 Myspace:
I’m not sure why the guys above chose to let this bull fall so far, but Lostroh is surely happy that they did. This is the plum pick for a left-handed rider in this round. A 28-percent buckoff average versus lefties and an average score of 88.85 points? That’s hard to beat.

Shane Proctor on 421 Kabookie:
Jenkins rode him last night, and Proctor should have an easier time with him. By the numbers, this is one of the hardest bulls in the round to ride. Proctor has faced him before, and lost – at a Touring Pro Division event in January of 2010. Since then, Proctor has visited the phone booth, and come out a different man. He just doesn’t make mistakes, and he’s always in the right position. Kabookie’s main weapon is speed, and Proctor stays so compact and moves so efficiently that I don’t think speed will affect him.

Fabiano Vieira on 602 Iron Horse:
This should be a score. Iron Horse is ridden around 50 percent of the time. Although it’s hard to grab the limelight from his countrymen, Vieira has ridden 65 percent of his bulls this season, down from 68 percent last year. He’s a contender.

Austin Meier on 02 Texas Blues:
Here’s a bull who has faced four left-handed riders and been ridden by all four of them. He’s been ridden six of 12 times overall.

Riders with one score:

Stormy Wing on 518 Space Chimp:
This is a pretty even match. Space Chimp is going to spin to the left mighty fast. Wing will have to keep up. This is the kind of bull a rider can get dizzy on.

Robson Palermo on 206 Clam Digger:
Palermo will get a second score here, and it may be enough to keep him in contention if he gets some help from the riders ahead of him.

Sean Willingham on 615B Top Diamond:
This should be an easy second score for Willingham.

Dustin Elliott on 01B High Octane Hurricane:
Everyone here who has just one score not only needs a second one, they need a huge second one, and of all the one-score guys, Elliott picked to get it. This bull was in the short round last night and threw Lostroh. His bull score was 44.25, and that’s what Elliott needs – a big bull score. He bucked off this bull in Sacramento, Calif., in January.

Guilherme Marchi on 305 Rewind:
One of the reasons this bull looks so favorable on paper for right-handed riders is that Marchi has ridden him four times in as many attempts.

— by Slade Long
(Slade Long, PBR Web Developer and Statistician, has been crunching the numbers on bucking bulls for 12 years.)

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